Is Livan Hernandez the Rotations Savior or Disaster Waiting to Happen?

Although Livan Hernandez didn’t get a win last night due to K-Rod’s real first blown save, he sure has been the best #5 in baseball. He’s 2nd out of the starters in ERA, Strikeouts, Innings Pitched & Tied for 2nd in Wins. He has less walks than Ace Johan Santana and is the only Mets pitcher to have a complete game this year.

But the real question is if Livan is for real, and there are plenty of reasons to be worried that he won’t be able to keep up this performance. Last year before the all star break Livan was 9-6. Like this year, he wasn’t guaranteed a starting spot out of spring training but impressed the Twins enough to put him in their starting rotation. At the trading deadline he was traded to the Colorado Rockies and saw his season tumble down. He went 3-3 with an 8.08 ERA, even for Coors Field that’s a high ERA.

But one season isn’t all there is to know about Livan. He is the only pitcher since 2000 to have 10+ wins every season, but also 10+ losses. In his career, his has less innings pitched and wins in the second half of the year than the first. The 34 year old pitcher between 2000-2007 had 200+ innings a season and it doesn’t get easier when you’re older.

So what are the Mets to do come the All-Star Break? Maybe Livan will prove me wrong and pitch as well as he has so far, but if his pattern continues the Mets do need a backup plan. We do have John Maine coming back and Oliver Perez should be checking out of the mental health program soon, maybe we need to put Livan in the bullpen. A long relief role with an occasional spot start. But until then let’s be happy with what we got because going into spring training, who would have ever thought Livan Hernandez will be arguably the most productive pitcher we have.